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Statistical modeling techniques are important for guiding tobacco control strategies.



The 2014 Surgeon General’s Report highlighted the importance of systems-level mod­eling in tobacco control policy by noting that it is “a needed tool for continually revising tobacco control strategies, reflecting the dynamic nature of the tobacco epidemic and its drivers” (page 849). The concept of using computer simulation models to monitor and measure tobacco control policies is not new (e.g., Levy et al., 2002) and more recently these models are being applied to examine policies in different countries across the world (Levy et al., 2012; 2013; Maslennikova et al., 2012; Nagelhout et al.,2012). Undoubtedly, simulation modeling will play an important role in assessing and directing the impact of future tobacco control policies.



Levy DT, Chaloupka F, Gitchell J, Mendez D, Warner KE. The use of simulation models for the surveillance, justification and understanding of tobacco control policies. Health care management science. 2002;5(2):113-120.

Levy D, de Almeida LM, Szklo A. The Brazil SimSmoke policy simulation model: the effect of strong tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in a middle income nation. PLoS medicine. 2012;9(11):e1001336.

Levy DT, Huang AT, Currie LM, Clancy L. The benefits from complying with the framework convention on tobacco control: a SimSmoke analysis of 15 European nations. Health Policy Plan. 2013 Nov 20.

Maslennikova GY, Oganov RG, Boytsov SA, Ross H, Huang AT, Near A, Kotov A, Berezhnova I, Levy DT. Russia SimSmoke: the long-term effects of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in Russia. Tob Control. 2014 Nov;23(6):484-90.

Nagelhout GE, Levy DT, Blackman K, Currie L, Clancy L, Willemsen MC. The effect of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. Findings from the Netherlands SimSmoke Tobacco Control Policy Simulation Model. Addiction. 2012 Feb;107(2):407-16.

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. The Health Consequences of Smoking — 50 Years of Progress: A Report of the Surgeon General. Atlanta, GA: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Office on Smoking and Health, 2014.

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